Last week we had Retail Sales data come out on Tuesday, where we saw the continued theme of soft economic numbers. The headline figure was .01%, which was lower than expected but still a significant improvement from the month prior (-.02%). June has been fairly quiet thus far on the trading front, but this week should be busier with the end of Q2 looming. There wasn’t much significant rate movement last week. 2-year and 10-year Swaps are both roughly 50 BPS off their recent highs. For any clients with hedging needs, it remains a good time to take advantage of the inverted curve.
This week we have a few Treasury auctions to watch. $69 Billion of 2-year securities will be auctioned Tuesday, followed by $70 Billion of 5-year paper and $44 Billion of 7’s on Thursday. Generally, 2’s and 5’s are expected to perform well but not 7’s. The auctions typically don’t move markets much unless they’re received very poorly. The big economic data point to watch this week will be PCE, which is expected to remain flat MoM. Personal Spending data will follow on Friday. The market is still pricing in 2 rate cuts at this point, which remains a bit more aggressive than what we’re hearing from the Fed.
Jake Tillman, Senior Analyst
Jake Tillman is a Senior Analyst, Capital Markets at Defease With Ease | Thirty Capital, bringing 5+ years of experience specializing in financial modeling, debt structuring, and risk analysis for CRE transactions. He supports the execution of financing strategies, including CMBS, as well as interest rate hedging and capital markets transactions. With expertise in cash flow modeling, credit risk assessment, and market analytics, he provides data-driven insights to optimize capital structures and manage interest rate exposure. Jake assists in scenario analysis, transaction execution, and risk assessments, ensuring alignment with market conditions and client objectives. His technical background includes financial modeling, Bloomberg analytics, and structured finance evaluation.
