Markets remained subdued last week, with interest rates largely flat and swap curve movement minimal. The 2-year swap ticked up 5 basis points, while the 10-year swap closed down just 1 bp—marking three straight weeks of sub-5 bp movement across the curve. The summer lull continues, but that’s likely to change.
This week brings a heavy slate of data and events:
- $183B in Treasury auctions across 2-, 5-, and 7-year notes (Monday–Tuesday)
- Fed meeting (Wednesday): No cut expected, but all eyes on Powell’s tone and any forward guidance for September
- Key economic data releases:
- JOLTS & Consumer Confidence (Tuesday)
- ADP Employment & Q2 GDP (Wednesday)
- PCE (Fed’s preferred inflation gauge), Jobless Claims (Thursday)
- Nonfarm Payrolls & ISM Manufacturing (Friday)
With inflation, labor, and growth indicators all hitting in the same week—paired with Fed commentary and ongoing corporate earnings (including several of the “Magnificent 7”)—markets could finally break out of their summer holding pattern.
Other notable insights:
- Treasury refunding announcement may add pressure to the long end, especially with foreign buyers (e.g., China, Saudi Arabia) stepping back
- Freddie/Fannie conservatorship chatter resurfaced, but privatization remains unlikely and inconsistent with current political messaging
- Deal timelines remain stretched—delays are common amid summer vacations and market uncertainty
Bottom line:
After weeks of calm, this week’s stacked calendar could reintroduce volatility. Most participants are in “wait-and-see” mode until the data comes in.
Jake Tillman, Senior Analyst
Jake Tillman is a Senior Analyst, Capital Markets at Defease With Ease | Thirty Capital, bringing 5+ years of experience specializing in financial modeling, debt structuring, and risk analysis for CRE transactions. He supports the execution of financing strategies, including CMBS, as well as interest rate hedging and capital markets transactions. With expertise in cash flow modeling, credit risk assessment, and market analytics, he provides data-driven insights to optimize capital structures and manage interest rate exposure. Jake assists in scenario analysis, transaction execution, and risk assessments, ensuring alignment with market conditions and client objectives. His technical background includes financial modeling, Bloomberg analytics, and structured finance evaluation.
