Markets remained relatively calm last week despite several key data releases. Inflation came in largely as expected, with CPI slightly elevated but PPI flat, marking an encouraging sign for wholesale prices. Retail sales beat expectations, and jobless claims remained subdued, reinforcing confidence in consumer and labor market strength.
Interest rates showed minimal movement for the second week in a row, with the 2-year swap down 1 basis point and the 10-year swap up 1 basis point. The probability of a rate cut in July remains low, though markets are still pricing in nearly two cuts by year-end, down from earlier projections.
Looking ahead, the week should be quiet on the macro front with the Fed in blackout mode ahead of its July 30 meeting. A 20-year Treasury auction is scheduled, but it’s not expected to generate much market movement. Earnings season ramps up and could drive some short-term volatility.
On the political side, spending bills and budget cuts dominated the headlines, though none are expected to have a material market impact. Brief volatility was seen after rumors of Trump potentially firing Fed Chair Powell, but the reaction was short-lived.
Markets continue to experience a summer lull, but participants are watching closely for signs of renewed movement in August.
Jake Tillman, Senior Analyst
Jake Tillman is a Senior Analyst, Capital Markets at Defease With Ease | Thirty Capital, bringing 5+ years of experience specializing in financial modeling, debt structuring, and risk analysis for CRE transactions. He supports the execution of financing strategies, including CMBS, as well as interest rate hedging and capital markets transactions. With expertise in cash flow modeling, credit risk assessment, and market analytics, he provides data-driven insights to optimize capital structures and manage interest rate exposure. Jake assists in scenario analysis, transaction execution, and risk assessments, ensuring alignment with market conditions and client objectives. His technical background includes financial modeling, Bloomberg analytics, and structured finance evaluation.
